Something unprecedented in times of peace, a cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics due to the health crisis would mean an earthquake for the world of sport, with economic consequences difficult to predict.
– Who would make the decision? –
Formally, the host city contract signed by the Japanese organizers reserves this responsibility to the International Olympic Committee (IOC), in case of “war”, “civil disorder”, or if it considers the safety of the participants “seriously threatened” by ” any reason ”.
But the IOC has no intention of canceling the event because it is convinced that it will be able to organize “safe” Games, since the hopes of the 11,000 classified athletes fall on it.
On the other hand, calls to throw in the towel are multiplying in Japan, where the population is hostile to the Games, with a very slow vaccination rate and with national and local elections on the near horizon.
“On the one hand, the IOC wants to maintain the image that the decision is its own, but it will not impose the Games on the Japanese authorities”, analyzes for AFP Jean-Loup Chappelet, professor emeritus at the University of Lausanne and specialist in Olympism.
Completely “political”, the decision therefore depends on both the Japanese state and the city of Tokyo, although it is convenient for all parties “to make a joint announcement with the IOC, as happened in the postponement decided in March 2020” adds the teacher.
– What consequences for Japan? –
A large part of the event’s budget has already been allocated: again evaluated at the end of 2020 at 15,400 million dollars (13,000 million euros), more than half of these expenses correspond to public investments in the permanent venues, conceived to redesign looking ahead to the image of Tokyo.
The cancellation would reduce to a minimum the operating expenses linked to the Games themselves – restoration, transport, energy, set-up of the Olympic village – but it would also cut income.
Japan had already assimilated the loss of the 800 million dollars (673 million euros) expected from ticket sales in case of being played behind closed doors. But he would also have to negotiate with the sponsors ($ 3.3 billion, € 2.7 billion), and probably waive the IOC contribution ($ 1.3 billion, € 1.1 billion).
– How much would the cancellation cost the Olympic world? –
The IOC never communicated the amount of revenue expected for the Tokyo Games, since it only publishes its revenue at the end of a four-year cycle: those of the 2013-2016 Olympiad, which included the 2014 Olympics. of Sochi and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio, reached 5,700 million dollars (4,800 million euros).
Three-quarters come from broadcasting rights, estimated by specialists at at least 1,500 million dollars (1,230 million euros) for Tokyo, and that would have to be returned. The remainder comes from the TOP international sponsorship program and would involve negotiations with each sponsor.
But the disappearance of this manna would not endanger the IOC, which has reserves in excess of one billion dollars. But it would weigh down on the entire sports movement, since at the same time it finances the national Olympic committees and the international federations, already weakened by the pandemic.
– What would insurers cover? –
It is the main unknown: since the Games of Turin-2006 the IOC has a policy against the risk of cancellation, “but it is not known if this policy remains at the original amount, of about 900 million dollars (737 million euros ), or if it has been lowered “as the reserves of the instance grew, explains to AFP Patrick Vajda, one of the pioneers in the insurance of sporting events, and president of XAW Sports.
In any case, the compensation would only cover a part of their losses, and there is no indication that the Japanese organizers would recover some of what was spent: they have never confirmed having cancellation insurance.
Finally, according to Patrick Vajda, some broadcasters such as the American NBC are insured, and some international federations “have been able to adhere to the IOC cancellation policy.” (GG) (AFP)