The 2020 season will consist of 102 fewer games than usual, a situation that opens up a new horizon of possibilities, such as ending the season with a .400 batting average.
No player has achieved this milestone in a qualifying season since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941. But there have been seven players since then to hit at least .400 over a 60-game stretch. (This does not include players who hit below .400 after 60 games, but then hit that mark.)
.400 average through 60 games, qualified hitters since 1942
Chipper Jones, 2008: .409
Tony Gwynn, 1997: .403
Larry Walker, 1997: .417
Paul O’Neill, 1994: .417
Rod Carew, 1983: .411
Hank Aaron, 1959: .402
Ted Williams, 1948: .412
No active player has ever done it, but there have been four hitters who have hit .400 over a 60-game stretch in one season as a qualified hitter. The group includes Venezuelan José Altuve, in 2016 and 2017, Joey Votto in 2016, Andrew McCutchen in 2012 and Dominican Albert Pujols in 2003. Dominican free agent Hanley Ramírez, who has not officially retired, also did so in 2009.
Could any of them hit .400 in this abbreviated 60-game schedule? Could another player achieve this feat? Achieving this milestone this year wouldn’t measure up to what Williams did in 1941, but it would be a fun novelty.
Still, the statistics tell us not to get delusional. According to research by veteran MLB.com stats architect Tom Tango, the odds of any qualified player hitting .400 this season are 3%. But that percentage is much higher than the odds in a normal 162 game campaign, which are 0.012%.
While the forecasts look elusive, it’s still interesting to imagine a serious search down the stretch of September. Here are 12 candidates to hit .400 this season.
THE SUPER STARS
Jose Altuve, Astros
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .346 (2017)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .296
Highest batting average in a qualifying stretch of 60 games: .420 (2017)
The Venezuelan has won three career batting titles, in 2014, 2016 and 2017. He has hit above .300 in five of his eight qualified seasons, and last year he came close to it, when he hit .298. And Altuve has shown himself capable of stringing together a hitting streak necessary to achieve this mark. His .420 batting average over 60 games in 2017 tied the highest record for any player in 75 days (since 1904).
Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .305 (2019)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .287
Highest batting average in a qualifying stretch of 60 games: .370 (2019)
Bellinger stayed at .400 or higher longer than anyone else last year, through 49 games. It was the longest attempt to hit .400 since Jones had 73 games in 2008.
Bellinger led all qualified hitters last year with an anticipated batting average of .323, which is based on contact quality plus strikeouts. Strikeouts – or the lack of them – were a key part of his success in 2019.
DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .348 (2016)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .285
Highest batting average in a qualifying stretch of 60 games: .379 (2016)
LeMahieu posted his second-highest batting average in 2019, hitting .327 in his first year in the Bronx to shut up those who claimed his previous success was strictly due to having played most of his games at Coors Field. . LeMahieu’s advance statistics also corroborated his results. His .322 xBA (Early Batting Average) was the second-highest mark among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger’s average – and it came very close to matching his .327 average.
Anthony Rendón, Angels
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .319 (2019)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .284
Highest batting average in a qualifying stretch of 60 games: .370 (2019)
Rendón’s batting average in 2019 was the highest of his career, but that doesn’t mean we should anticipate a setback. Why? His xBA in 2019 was the exact same mark, .319, and he was the only qualified hitter with a batting average equal to his xBA last year. It might look like a statistical anomaly, but it shows that his batting average was not artificially high as a result of luck. His .319 xBA also finished third among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger and LeMahieu.
Mike Trout, Angels
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .326 (2012)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .297
Highest batting average in a qualifying stretch of 60 games: .385 (2013)
No list of players with the potential for greatness is complete without Trout, and the quest for .400 is no exception. Trout’s .291 average in 2019 was his second-lowest in a qualified season, but his xBA was .311, tied for fifth among qualified hitters. In other words, based on his quality of contact and strikeouts, he should have finished with a higher average.
Christian Yelich, Brewers
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .329 (2019)
Projected 2020 batting average by Steamer: .304
Highest batting average in a qualifying stretch of 60 games: .365 (2018)
Yelich has won consecutive batting titles in the National League, with a combined average of .327, which is why we should expect him to be a legitimate candidate to hit .400 in 2020. His xBA of .313 in 2019 was the fourth most mark. high among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger, LeMahieu and Rendón.
THOSE WHO COULD SURPRISE
Luis Arráez, Twins
Highest batting average: .334 (2019 – MLB only season, did not qualify)
Projected 2020 batting average by Steamer: .312
Highest batting average over 60 games span: .340 (2019)
Arráez drew attention in 2019 for his ball contact skills. The Venezuelan had a contact average of 93.3%, the highest among 273 players with at least 300 plate appearances. Arráez also struck out very little – doing so in just 7.9% of his at-bats, the lowest percentage among the same group of players. His anticipated batting average of .312 for 2020 is the highest according to Steamer.
Howie Kendrick, Nationals
Highest batting average: .344 (2019 – did not qualify)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .308
Highest batting average in 60-game stretch: .359 (2007)
Kendrick has already entered his name in the record books with two dramatic home runs in the Nationals’ World Series title fight in 2019. Can you imagine adding the tag of “.400 hitter” to his career by just one? year later ?. He has recently served as a part-time player, racking up just 370 plate appearances last year, but if he can play long enough, the veteran has the tools to do it.
Alex Verdugo, Red Sox
Highest batting average: .294 (2019 – did not qualify)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .307
Highest batting average over 60 games span: .305 (2019)
Verdugo is on par with several elite hitters when it comes to strikeout rate. With 377 plate appearances in 2019, the outfielder of Mexican descent struck out 13% of the time, the 19th lowest mark among 141 players with at least 350 at-bats. More evidence of his contact skills can be found in his fan pitching rate of just 16%. As we said before, making constant contact and avoiding striking out are two key aspects of accomplishing this feat, and Verdugo appears to be in very good shape.
ROCKIES
Nolan Arenado
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .315 (2019)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .296
Highest batting average in 60-game stretch: .346 (2019)
Arenado is a superstar, of course, but he appears on this list to be alongside his teammates. It’s difficult to have a roster of candidates to hit .400 without some players whose home games are at Coors Field, given that a Rockie has won the batting crown 11 times in the 27 seasons since the franchise was born, including in six of the last 13. And what better to start with the eternal candidate of the MVP Award team. Arenado is coming off his career-highest batting average, in a 2019 season that also included his highest 60-game qualified batting average of .346 from mid-April to late June.
Daniel murphy
Highest batting average in a qualifying season: .347 (2016)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .288
Highest batting average in 60-game stretch: .374 (2016)
Murphy is another very good option on the Rockies roster, especially since he is likely to benefit from the addition of the designated hitter just like Kendrick. That should give him a little more at-bats, and probably a little more consistency, too. His 2019 performance was not up to his standards, but he was in the league’s 4% or better in xBA for the 2016-2018 seasons – and that was before he played home games at Coors Field.
Yonathan daza
Highest batting average: .206 (2019 – MLB only season, did not qualify)
Projected 2020 batting average according to Steamer: .301
Highest batting average in 60-game stretch – Has seen no action in 60 games in MLB
This case is a toss-up – but bear with the process here. Daza is the Rockies’ 11th-best prospect on the MLB Pipeline list and saw action in 44 games in the majors in 2019. But the Venezuelan’s odds of hitting .400, which are relatively high according to Tango’s research, rest. In its beginning: A player hitting .400 could be one who plays long enough to hit the plate minimum of 186 to qualify for the batting crown this year. In 1980, George Brett hit .390 – one of the closest .400 attempts to Williams’ feat. He did it in a season in which he racked up 515 at-bats after being limited by an ankle injury. (GG)(Taken from MLB: COM)